Ibhalwe nguFinlay Colville
Novemba 17, 2022
Kuzoba ne-polysilicon eyanele ekhiqizwe ngo-2022 ukusekela ukwenziwa kwamamojula angama-320GW wamamojula we-c-Si.Isithombe: JA Solar.
Imboni ye-solar PV kulindeleke ukuthi ikhiqize amamojula angama-310GW ngo-2022, amele ukukhuphuka okumangazayo okungama-45% unyaka nonyaka uma kuqhathaniswa no-2021, ngokocwaningo lwakamuva olwenziwa ithimba labacwaningi bemakethe le-PV Tech futhi oluvezwe ku-PV Manufacturing entsha &. Umbiko we-Technology Quarterly.
Imakethe ngo-2022 yayiholwa ekukhiqizeni futhi ekugcineni yalinganiswa ngenani le-polysilicon ekhiqizwa unyaka wonke.Isidingo ngezinye izikhathi sasikhuphuke ngo-50-100% ngaphezu kwalokho okungakhiqizwa.
Kuzoba ne-polysilicon eyanele ekhiqizwe ngo-2022 ukusekela ukwenziwa kwamamojula angama-320GW wamamojula we-c-Si.Amazinga okukhiqiza amaseli e-wafer kanye ne-c-Si kungenzeka agcine efinyelele ku-315GW.Ukukhiqizwa kwemojula (i-c-Si kanye nefilimu encane) kufanele kusondele ku-310GW, ukuthunyelwa kokugcina kwemakethe ku-297GW.Ngibeka iphutha elingu-±2% kulawa manani njengamanje, sekusele amasonto ayisithupha okukhiqiza unyaka.
Kumamojula angu-297GW athunyelwa ngo-2022, inani elibalulekile lalokhu ngeke liphumele kumthamo omusha wokufakwa kwe-PV.Lokhu kungenxa yezici eziningana;okunye okujwayelekile, okunye okusha.Okugqame kakhulu kube 'ukugcinwa' kwamamojula kumasiko ase-US nokubambezeleka kokuxhumana.Kodwa manje sekukhona ivolumu encomekayo ezoshintsha amamojula noma iphinde inike amandla izitshalo.Umthamo wokugcina we-PV omusha owengezwe ngo-2022 ungagcina usondele ku-260GW uma konke lokhu sekwaziwa ngokugcwele.
Ngokombono wokukhiqiza, azikho izimanga ezinkulu.I-China ikhiqize u-90% we-polysilicon, u-99% wama-wafers, u-91% wamaseli e-c-Si kanye no-85% wamamojula we-c-Si.Futhi-ke, wonke umuntu ufuna ukukhiqizwa kwasekhaya, ikakhulukazi i-India, i-US naseYurophu.Ukufuna kuyinto eyodwa;ukuba nakho kungenye.
Cishe ingxenye ye-polysilicon eyenziwe eChina ngo-2022 embonini ye-PV ikhiqizwa eXinjiang.Lesi silinganiso sizokwehla njalo ngonyaka ukuya phambili manje, kungekho umthamo omusha olindeleke ukuthi ungene ku-inthanethi kulesi sifunda.
Mayelana nobuchwepheshe, uhlobo lwe-n luye lwangena kakhulu, kanti i-TOPCon manje isiyisakhiwo esikhethwayo sabaholi bemakethe, nakuba amagama athile avelele anethemba lokushayela kukho kokubili i-heterojunction kanye nokuxhumana emuva esikalini se-GW eminingi ngo-2023. Cishe u-20GW amaseli ohlobo lwe-n abikezelwa ukuthi azokhiqizwa ngo-2022, lapho ama-83% awo azoba yi-TOPCon.Abakhiqizi baseShayina bashayela inguquko ye-TOPCon;cishe u-97% wamaseli e-TOPCon enziwe ngo-2022 aseChina.Ngonyaka ozayo luzobona lolu shintsho, njengoba i-TOPCon iqala ukuthola indlela yayo engxenyeni yezinsiza zase-US, into ezodinga ukuthi amaseli e-TOPCon enziwe ngaphandle kweChina, mhlawumbe eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, kodwa kuya ngokuthi kwenzekani ngophenyo oluqhubekayo oluhlobene anti-circumvention e-US.
Mayelana nokuthunyelwa kwamamojula ngo-2022, iYurophu yaba ngumnqobi omkhulu, nakuba amamojula amangalisayo angu-100GW-plus enziwa eChina futhi agcinwa eChina.Ngaphandle kwe-US, zonke ezinye izimakethe zokugcina ezinkulu zibone ukukhula okunamandla okunamadijithi amabili, ngokuhambisana nokulangazelela kwe-solar okugcwele umhlaba kamuva nje.
I-Europe yayingaphansi kwezinkinga ezimbalwa ngo-2022 ezadala ukukhula okumangalisayo okubonwe.Isifunda sibe yindawo okuzothunyelwa kuyo amavolumu abengatholakali emakethe yase-US futhi saphinde sathintwa imiphumela yokungqubuzana kwase-Ukraine.Cishe amamojula angama-67GW athunyelwa emakethe yaseYurophu ngo-2022 - amavolumu akekho owayewalindele ngonyaka owedlule.
Unyaka wonke, imboni ye-PV yathinteka kakhulu yi-buzzword entsha ezindebeni zawo wonke umuntu: ukulandeleka.Ukuthenga amamojula we-solar PV akukaze kube nzima kangako.
Beka eceleni iqiniso lokuthi izintengo zisaphakeme ngo-20-30% kuneminyaka embalwa edlule, ukuthi izinkontileka ezisayinwe ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ezedlule zingase zingalifanelekeli iphepha ezibhalwe kulo, noma izihloko ezinameva zokuthembeka kwenkundla nokuhlonipha izimangalo zewaranti.
Ukudlula zonke lezi namuhla kuyindida yokulandeleka.Ubani owenza ukuthi yini futhi kuphi namuhla, futhi ngaphezulu iphuzu, bayokwenza kuphi eminyakeni ezayo.
Izwe lebhizinisi libhekene nalolu daba manje nokuthi lisho ukuthini uma uthenga imojula ye-PV.Ngibhale kabanzi ku-PV Tech kule minyaka eyishumi edlule ngokuthi kungani kubalulekile ukuqonda ukuthi izinkampani eziningi ezithengisa amamojula azenzi lutho ngaphandle komkhiqizo 'wephakheji' owenziwe ezinye izinkampani.Ngaphambili, bengicabanga ukuthi kubaluleke kakhulu mayelana nokuzethemba ngekhwalithi;manje lokhu kudlulwa ngokulandeleka kanye nesidingo sokucwaningwa kwamaketango okuhlinzeka.
Abathengi bamamojula kufanele bathathe isifundo sokuphahlazeka ekukhiqizeni i-supply chain dynamics manje, behlubula izendlalelo zemojula yonke indlela ebuyela ezintweni zokusetshenziswa eziya ezitshalweni ze-polysilicon emhlabeni jikelele.Nakuba kungase kubonakale kubuhlungu, izinzuzo zokugcina zizoba zibalulekile, zigcine seziphakeme kunezokucwaninga kokulandelela.
Njengamanje, mayelana nokukhiqizwa kwezingxenye (i-polysilicon, i-wafer, iseli kanye nemojuli) kuyasiza ukuhlukanisa umhlaba ube izingxenye eziyisithupha: i-Xinjiang, lonke i-China, i-Southeast Asia, i-India, i-US, kanye nomhlaba wonke.Mhlawumbe ngonyaka ozayo, i-Europe izoqala ukudlala lapha, kodwa ngo-2022 kusengaphambi kwesikhathi ukukhipha i-Europe (ngaphandle kokuthi u-Wacker wenza i-polysilicon eJalimane).
Umfanekiso ongezansi uthathwe ku-webinar engiyilethe ngesonto eledlule.Ibonisa ukukhiqizwa kuka-2022 ezifundeni ezihlukahlukene ezigqanyisiwe ngenhla.
I-China ibibusa ukukhiqizwa kwezingxenye ze-PV ngo-2022, kugxilwe kakhulu ekutheni ingakanani i-polysilicon ekhiqizwe e-Xinjiang.
Singena ku-2023, kuningi ukungaqiniseki okwamanje, futhi ngizozama ukukumboza kulezi zinyanga ezimbalwa ezizayo emicimbini yethu nasezicini ze-PV Tech nama-webinars.
Nakuba ukulandeleka kanye ne-ESG kuzohlala kuphezulu ku-ajenda kwabaningi (kokubili amamojula okuthenga nokuthengisa), ukukhishwa kwentengo yemojula (ASP) kungaba iyona ezolandelelwa eduze kakhulu (futhi!).
I-Module ASP ihlale iphakeme iminyaka embalwa kuphela ngenxa yalokhu kulangazelela okukhulu kwelanga okubekwe yi-net zero syndrome kohulumeni, izinsiza kanye nezinkampani zomhlaba (ilanga lihlala lingamandla avuselelekayo akhangayo kakhulu ngenxa yejubane lokuthunyelwa kanye nendawo/ ukuguquguquka kobunikazi).Ngisho noma umuntu eqagela lokho kufuna (okungachazeki lapho ingxenyenamba yabatshalizimali kuphela ithola umkhiqizo) ngokuphindwe kabili kwelanga eminyakeni embalwa ezayo, ngesinye isikhathi umthamo we-China uzongena enkundleni.
Kalula nje, uma ufuna into ephindwe kabili ngonyaka ozayo futhi i-supply chain itshala imali ukwenza umthamo ophindwe kathathu kunonyaka odlule, lokhu kuba imakethe yomthengi futhi intengo yempahla iyehla.Emhlabeni jikelele namuhla, i-bottleneck yi-polysilicon.Ngo-2023, ezinye izimakethe zingase zibe nezinye izingqinamba uma kunemibandela yokungenisa ebekwe kwezinye izingxenye zochungechunge lwenani (amaseli noma amamojula, isibonelo).Kodwa ukugxila ngokubanzi ku-polysilicon nokuthi kungakanani umthamo omusha ozofika ku-inthanethi e-China nokuthi lokhu kuzokhiqiza ini;umthamo nokukhiqiza yizinto ezimbili ezihluke kakhulu, ikakhulukazi uma abadlali abasha bengena esikhaleni.
Ukubikezela ukukhiqizwa kwe-polysilicon ngo-2023 kunzima kakhulu namuhla.Hhayi kangako mayelana nokubheka ukuthi yiliphi izinga lomthamo omusha 'elizokwakhiwa';kakhulu mayelana nokuthi lokhu kuzokhiqiza ini futhi uma i-polysilicon 'cartel' yaseShayina izothatha isinyathelo sokulawula ukunikezwa ukuze ikugcine kuqinile.Kunengqondo ukuthi abakhiqizi be-polysilicon baseShayina basebenze njengeklabhu, noma inqola, futhi behlise ijubane ukwanda uma kudingeka, noma benze ukulungiswa okunwetshiwe maphakathi nonyaka ukuze bathole uhlu lwamagama.
Umlando usitshela okuphambene nokho.Izinkampani zaseShayina zivame ukweqa lapho kunesidingo semakethe, futhi naphezu kokuba izwe libekwe endaweni efanele ukuthi lidlulise igunya emazingeni omthamo womkhakha, ligcina selikhululekile futhi linemali engapheli etafuleni kunoma yimuphi umuntu osanda kungena. isifiso semboni.
Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi amanani entengo ye-polysilicon angehla, kodwa amanani emojula ayakhuphuka.Lokhu kungase kube nzima ukukuthatha njengoba kungqubuzana nomqondo ovamile embonini ye-PV.Kodwa yinto engase yenzeke ngo-2023. Ngizozama ukukuchaza lokhu manje.
Emakethe enamamojula amaningi kakhulu (njengoba imboni ye-PV yayisebenza kakhulu kuze kube ngu-2020), kuvame ukuba nokuthrendayo kwemojula ye-ASP eyehlayo kanye nokwanda kwezindleko.Ngokuzenzakalelayo, amanani entengo ye-polysilicon (kucatshangwa ukuthi kukhona okungaphezu kwalokho) aphansi.Cabangela i-sub US$10/kg emuva kosuku.
Phakathi neminyaka embalwa edlule, intengo yamamojula ayizange yenyuke ngenxa nje yokuthi ukunikezwa kwe-polysilicon bekuqinile futhi amanani enyuka (afinyelela ngaphezu kuka-$30/kg ikakhulukazi), kodwa ngenxa yokuthi kwakuyimakethe yomthengisi wamamojula.Uma intengo ye-polysilicon ngo-2022 yehle yaba ngu-US$10/kg, abahlinzeki bemojula bebesakwazi ukuthengisa umkhiqizo ebangeni elingu-30-40c/W.Bekuzoba nemajini engeziwe yabakhi be-wafer, amaseli kanye namamojula.Awehlisi inani lentengo uma ungalidingi.
Ezinyangeni eziyi-18 ezedlule, kungimangazile ukuthi i-Beijing ayizange (ngokuphelele ngemuva kwezigcawu) 'iyalele' inqola ye-polysilicon e-China ukuthi yehlise amanani entengo.Hhayi ukusiza umhlaba wonke lapho uthenga amamojula, kodwa ukuvumela isabelo esifanelekile senzuzo kulo lonke uchungechunge lwenani lokukhiqiza e-China.Ngicabanga nje ukuthi akwenzekanga ngoba wonke umuntu e-China ukwazile ukuchuma futhi agcine u-10-15% wemali engenayo - ngisho ne-polysilicon ethengisa ngama-US $ 40/kg.Okuwukuphela kwesizathu somthetho waseBeijing kuzoba ukukhombisa umhlaba wangaphandle ukuthi abahlinzeki bayo be-polysilicon (khumbula uhhafu we-polysilicon yaseChina ngo-2022 yenziwa eXinjiang) bebengabikwanga ngo-70-80% wemikhawulo ngenkathi bebekwe obala ngenxa yombuzo wonke we-Xinjiang. .
Ngakho-ke, akuhlanya ukuthi ngo-2023, kuzoba nezikhathi lapho amanani entengo e-polysilicon ehla khona kodwa amanani emojula awathinteki futhi mhlawumbe anyuke.
Akuzona zonke izindaba ezimbi kubathengi bamamojula ngo-2023. Kunezimpawu zokuthi kuzokwenzeka ukugcwala ngokweqile kwama-cyclical, ikakhulukazi engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2023 futhi mhlawumbe kubonakale kuqala kubathengi bamamojula aseYurophu.Okuningi kwalokhu kuvela eqinisweni lokuthi imboni yaseShayina ibheka ukuthunyelwa kwamavolumu amakhulu eYurophu futhi cishe ngaphezu kwalokho okungenzeka ukuthi abathuthukisi baseYurophu/EPCs bangakwenza ngesikhathi esifushane.
Iningi lalezi zihloko lizoba maphakathi nengqungquthela ezayo ye-PV ModuleTech eMalaga, eSpain ngomhla ka-29-30 Novemba 2022. Zisekhona izindawo zokuthamela umcimbi;ulwazi olwengeziwe ngesixhumanisi lapha nokuthi ungabhalisa kanjani ukuze ube khona.Akukaze kube khona isikhathi esingcono sokuthi sibambe ingqungquthela yethu yokuqala yase-Europe ye-PV ModuleTech!
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Nov-21-2022