Umbiko wakamuva we-Wood Mackenzie ubheka izitayela nezinselele emakethe yelanga ekhula ngamandla elanga lase-US, okuhlanganisa ukukhiqizwa okugqugquzelwa Umthetho Wokwehliswa Kokwehla Kwamanani Amandla Wase-US.
Kuvela kumagazini we-pv wase-USA
Umthetho Wokuncishiswa Kokwehla kwamandla emali wase-US wango-2022 uqukethe amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-370 ekusetshenzisweni kwamandla avuselelekayo nesimo sezulu.Lo mthethosivivinywa uhlanganisa imali engaphezu kwezigidigidi ezingama-60 zamaRandiukukhiqizwa kwasekhayakulo lonke uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwamandla ahlanzekile.Leli zinga elingokomlando lokutshalwa kwezimali liyisihluthulelo sokuzuza inkululeko yokukhiqiza yaseMelika kanye nokuvikeleka kwamandla ahlanzekile.
Umbiko wakamuva ovela ku-Wood Mackenzie ubonisa ukuthi abathuthukisi, izinkampani zokuthengwa kwempahla yobunjiniyela (EPCs), kanye nabakhiqizi bazobheka isiqondiso esivela eMnyangweni Wezezimali wase-US kanye ne-IRS ukuze kucace ukuze benze amasu okuthuthukiswa kwelanga kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali ezikhungweni ezintsha zokukhiqiza. ngaphakathi kwe-United States.
Umbiko ubheka izitayela kulo mkhakha okhulayo, okuhlanganisa ukugxila kumamojula we-TOPCon phezu kwe-heterojunction (HJT), ukukhula emakethe ye-inverter yokuhlala yomhlaba wonke, ukwanda kokukhiqizwa kwe-tracker, ukwehla okulindelekile kwezindleko zephrojekthi yelanga kanye nokubheka izinselelo eziya phambili. .
I-TOPcon vs. PERC
I-TOPCon, emele oxhumana nabo be-tunnel oxide passivated, kulindeleke ukuthi idlule i-heterojunction (HJT), futhi umbiko we-Wood Mackenzie uphawula ukuthi i-mono PERC "ubuchwepheshe obulinganisa ukuvuthwa nokusebenza kahle", okubonisa ukuthi i-TOPCon inamandla amakhulu okukhula ngenxa yenqubo. ukuthuthukiswa kanye nokwenza ngcono izindleko.
"I-PERCubuchwepheshe panelfuthi inejika lokufunda elisheshayo futhi ibhalansi phakathi kwazo izoncika ekutheni iyiphi ezokwazi ukukhulisa ukusebenza kahle kwayo noma ukunciphisa izindleko ngokushesha kunomunye,” uStefan Gunz, inhloko yocwaningo lwama-photovoltaics eFraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems yaseJalimane. (ISE), utshelepv umagaziningonyaka edlule.
Abahlaziyi be-Wood Mackenzie balinganisela ukuthi amamojula we-TOPCon afinyelele ukusebenza kahle kwe-25% ekukhiqizeni ngobuningi futhi angase akhuphukele ku-28.7%
Ukuthuthukisa ukukhiqiza kusuka ekukhiqizweni kwe-mono PERC kuya ku-TOPCon kuwutshalomali olula futhi olunezindleko eziphansi uma kuqhathaniswa, futhi abahlaziyi balinganisela ukuthi ukusebenza kahle kwelebhu okungama-27% kungafinyelelwa ngokuthuthukiswa kokwenziwa kwe-metallization namawafa amancane.U-Wood Mackenzie uphawula ukuthi abanye abakhiqizi balindele ukuthi ubukhulu be-wafer obuphakathi kwamamojula wefomethi ye-TOPCon yefomethi enkulu yehle ngo-20 μm kulo nyaka bufinyelele ku-120 μm, okuzoqhuba iningi lokwehliswa kwentengo ngo-2023.
Umthetho Wokwehliswa Kokwehla Kwamandla Emali ukhuthaza ukukhiqizwa kwamamojula ase-US ngenxa yezikweletu zentela yokukhiqiza eziyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-30 zamaRandi kanye nekhredithi yentela yokutshalwa kwezimali engu-$10 billion yokwakha izindawo zokukhiqiza ubuchwepheshe obuhlanzekile.UWood Mackenzie ulindele i-USumthamo wokukhiqiza wemojulaukuze lidlule ku-15 GW ekupheleni kwalo nyaka.
Umbuzo omkhulu, noma kunjalo, incazelo "yemishini eyenziwe ekhaya", nokuthi kusho ukuthi amamojula ahlanganiswe e-United States, noma uma zonke izingxenye zenziwa e-US.Inselele kubenzi bamamojula ukuthi akukho nhlobo ukukhiqizwa kwe-wafer noma amaseli e-US, nakuba lokho kushintsha ngezimemezelo zakamuva zezinkampani ezihlanganisa i-Qcells ne-CubicPV.Umehluko ekuchazeni okuqukethwe kwasekhaya "ungathinta kakhulu umthamo wokukhiqiza amamojula eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo", lo mbiko uphikisana.Abahlaziyi balinganisela ukuthi cishe ama-GWdc angama-45 wezimemezelo zamandla amasha azofika ku-inthanethi ngo-2026.
Ukukhula okulindelekile kwe-solar e-US kuzohamba phambili phakathi kwe-supply chain, kukhuphule ukukhula kwama-inverter nama-tracker, phakathi kwezinye izingxenye ezisekelayo.Umbiko we-Wood Mackenzie uphawula ukuthi izinguquko zakamuva zenqubomgomo, okuhlanganisa i-EU's REPowerEU, ukuqaliswa kwe-India kwe-Production Linked Incentives (PLI) kanye ne-US IRA, kuzosheshisa ukwamukelwa kwelanga kulawa mazwe, ngaleyo ndlela kusize amazwe ukuthi afinyelele izinhloso zawo eziphelele.
Ngokombiko, imakethe ye-inverter yokuhlala izokhula emhlabeni wonke ngo-2023. Ngokukhula kwe-solar esophahleni, ikakhulukazi emazweni afana ne-India neJalimane, kuzoba nokuthuthukiswa okuhambisanayo emakethe yama-microinverters, i-string inverters kanye ne-DC optimizers, Izinketho ze-inverter ezidume kakhulu zokufakwa kophahla.Ngokuphawulekayo, iziguquli zezintambo ezinama-multiple maximum power point trackers (MPPTs) zizobona ukwanda kwemakethe ngo-2023.
Ama-inverters ezindawo zokuhlala azobona ukusetshenziswa okwandisiwe kobuhlakani bokwenziwa kuma-algorithms awo.I-Module-level power electronics (MLPEs) kanye nama-inverter eyunithi yesigaba esisodwa, adume kakhulu ekufakweni kwe-solar ophahleni, azobona isabelo semakethe esingu-11% ekuthunyelweni kwe-inverter yomhlaba wonke ngo-2023. Ukukhiqizwa kwe-inverter kuzokhula ngabadlali abakhulu abengeza imigqa yokukhiqiza nabasanda kungena. ukujoyina imakethe, futhi ukuncintisana okulandelayo kuzodala ukwehla kwentengo kusuka ku-2% kuya ku-4% ngo-2023.
Inselele eqhubekayo yabakhiqizi be-inverter ukushoda kwe-chip yomhlaba wonke, abahlaziyi be-Wood Mackenzie abalindele ukuqhubeka kuze kube ngu-2023 futhi kuchitheke ku-2024. Ukushoda kubangele abakhiqizi be-inverter ukuthi bathole ama-chips kubakhiqizi bezinga eliphansi ngaphambi kokwenza ukuhlolwa okunzima endlini. ukuqinisekisa ikhwalithi, ukusebenza kahle kanye nempilo yama-inverters.UWood Mac ubikezela ukuthi intengo ye-inverter ngeke yehle kuze kube kamuva kulo nyaka.
Ukukhiqizwa kwe-tracker kwasekhaya kuyakhula ngesivinini ezingxenyeni ezimbalwa zomhlaba ngenxa yezinzuzo zikahulumeni kanye nezinkinga zokuhlela okuhlangatshezwana nazo phakathi nobhadane lwe-COVID-19.Ngokusho kwabahlaziyi bakaWood Mackenzie, amanani e-tracker azokwehla eNdiya nase-United States.Balindele ukuzinza okwengeziwe ekuhlinzekweni kwensimbi e-US nase-India, ikakhulukazi ngokunwetshwa kokukhiqizwa kwensimbi okukhona.I-Europe, nokho, isazobhekana nokungalingani emakethe yensimbi.Njengoba ngaphezu kuka-60% wokwakheka kwe-tracker kuyinsimbi, lokhu kubuya kwesidingo sensimbi kuzoholela ekwandeni kokuncintisana emakethe ye-tracker kubathengisi, kusho abahlaziyi be-Wood Mackenzie, babikezela ukuthi amanani entengo ka-2023 ama-tracker azokwehla ngo-5% e-United States, Brazil kanye China.
Izindleko zelanga
Izindleko zezindleko ezinkulu zizoqhubeka zehla, ziqhutshwa ngokwengxenye ukwanda kokusetshenziswa kwamamojula we-TOPcon.Abahlaziyi be-Wood Mackenzie nabo balindele ukuthi amanani e-polysilicon ehle kulo nyaka futhi balinganisela ukuthi okukhona300 GWamandla omhlaba wonke azofinyelela ku-900 GW ekupheleni kuka-2023.
“Sibikezela ukuthi ngaphezu kwesigidi esingu-1 seMt yokwandiswa kwe-polysilicon izofika ku-inthanethi ngo-2023. Iningi lomthamo omusha lizoba seShayina.Kodwa-ke, sikholelwa ukuthi cishe u-10% ohlelelwe ukuba ube ngaphandle kwaseShayina ungahle ukhokhele intengo njengoba kungase kungabi nazintela nezinye izingozi zenqubomgomo.”
Inselele eqhubekayo ukungaqiniseki mayelana nezindleko zentela zokunqanda ukulahla/ukuphikiswa (AD/CVD).Njengoba kulindeleke ukuthi uMnyango Wezohwebo wase-US umemezele isinqumo sawo sokugcina ngoMeyi 2023, u-Wood Mackenzie ulinganisela ukuthi imisebenzi ingasukela ku-16% iye ku-254% ngokusekelwe ezweni lendabuko.Isinqumo sokuqala, esikhishwe ngoDisemba 2022, sathola izinkampani ezisezingeni loku-1, njenge-Trina, BYD, Vina (iyunithi yeLongi) kanye neCanadian Solar, ezeqa amanani entengo aseShayina.Isinqumo sokuqala sasusa u-Hanwha noJinko okuzophumela ekukhululekeni okuthile ekutholakaleni kwemojuli ngo-2023.
E-United States, onjiniyela bazoqhubeka nokugxila ezimfuneko ze-IRA, okuhlanganisa iholo elikhona kanye nesengezo sebhonasi yokuqukethwe kwasekhaya kumaphrojekthi esikali aqala ukwakhiwa ngo-2023. Ukuze amaphrojekthi afune u-30% wekhredithi yotshalomali egcwele noma intela yokukhiqiza. ngesikweletu, wonke amaphrojekthi amakhulu kuno-1 MWac kumele akhokhele abasebenzi bayo amaholo akhona futhi asungule uhlelo lokufundela umsebenzi.
E-Europe, inqubomgomo ye-REPowerEU ihlose ukufaka u-320 GW we-solar PV ngo-2025 kanye no-600 GW ngaphansi kwesu layo le-EU lamandla elanga.Ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nalezi zinjongo ezihlosiwe, idinga ukwakha isizinda sokukhiqiza esiqinile ngaphakathi kwesifunda.I-European Solar Photovoltaic Industry Alliance entsha, izodala uhlaka oluzosiza ukuvikela uxhaso lwezimali zokukhiqiza nokukhuthaza ucwaningo kanye nokusha kubuchwepheshe bemojula, phakathi kobunye ubuchwepheshe be-zero-carbon.
Inselele yokugcinaUkukhiqizwa kwe-PVeYurophu, ngokusho kwabahlaziyi be-Wood Mackenzie, ukuncintisana kwezindleko ezivela esifundeni se-APAC ngenxa yezindleko zayo eziphakeme zamandla, abasebenzi kanye nezinto ezibonakalayo, kodwa kungase kuzuze kumakhasimende azimisele ukukhokha i-premium yobuchwepheshe obungcono nokubeka izinto obala ku-supply chain.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jan-29-2023